The Real Tour de France 2011

Post Script – Up There Cadely

lerealtour — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 04:31:02 +0000

From Wikipedia: Roy Cazaly (13 January 1893 – 10 October 1963) was an Australian rules football player famous for his high marks and ruck work, which gave rise to the phrase “Up There Cazaly”. The expression later became the basis of a song recorded and composed by The Two Man Band (Mike Brady & Peter Sullivan).

The song was recorded in 1979, intended as a promotion for Channel Seven’s Australian Rules Football (VFL) coverage, and the following year, it was used in the film version of David Williamson’s The Club. The single, released on the independent Fable Records label, sold over 250,000 copies and became the largest-selling Australian single ever released up to that time…

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=360462

Up There Cadely

When you pedal to earn a living
In July comes the time
They’ve made you captain of the team
They hope that you can climb
Me, I rode less races
Than the other pros around
To save my energy for the Tour
And put the hammer Down!

Up there Cadely, now in full flight
On Mur de Bretagne, you timed it just right
Up there Cadely, we know that you’ve been
Second twice over, this time its to win

Now there’s a lot more to the Rest Day
Than really meets the eye
Some like to eat a Wagyu steak
While I stay media shy
There were those that didn’t rate me
But I out-rode Contador
And if you match the Schlecks on Alpe d’Huez
You’re going to win the TOUR!!

Up there Cadely, you’ve shown you can fight
With BMC Racing, your team is just right
On the Galibier, where the air is thin
You silenced the doubters, believed in the win

Up there Cadely, you’re out there to win
No one can touch you, the zone you are in
Up there Cadely, the Schleck’s you’ve defied
Trial like a jury, the time’s on your side

Ahhh…

Up there Cadely, you’re out there to win
No one can touch you, the zone you are in
Up there Cadely, the Schleck’s you’ve defied
Trial like a jury, the time’s on your side

The time… is on… your side!

Au revoir!

lerealtour — Sun, 24 Jul 2011 18:20:25 +0000

Stage honors on the Champs for Rogier, but overall honors to the unbeatable Pantini. Congrats once again. Matt repeated his runner-up position from last year, making him the Andy Schleck of our tipping competition. This, though, only 2 points separated it from the ultimate prize. Rogier took his second Champs victory in a row and jumped onto the final spot of the podium. Astrid also had a repeat Top 5 performance. Finally, Sapna sprinted to fourth place. In all, eight of us finished in the Top 100 of the Erik TKS Game. Well done to all of you.

Stage 21 results:

1. Rogier (Oncles) 42

2. Cameron, Todd (Pistachios), Sapna (Oncles) 40

Final GC

1. (35) Pantini (Pistachios) 682

2. (40) Matt (Oncles) 680

3. (59) Rogier (Oncles) 671

4. (64) Sapna (Oncles) 668

5. (68) Astrid (Oncles) 665

6. (71) Bec, Cameron (Pistachios) 663

8. (78) Ronnie (Oncles) 660

9. (111) Jeroen (Pistachios) 644

10. (141) Jon (Pistachios) 629

11. (153) Milton (Pistachios) 623

12. (178) Lucas (Pistachios) 613

13. (254) Todd (Pistachios) 569

14. (298) Michael (Pistachios) 548

15. (301) Paul (Pistachios), Robin (Oncles) 547

17. (312) Suchi (Oncles) 540

18. (352) Chris & Mandy (Pistachios) 507

19. (354) Alan (Oncles) 502

The Pistachios beat the Oncles 2397 to 2365.

Torgeir Gamst Moen Trophy:
1. Astrid (Oncles) 31

2. Sapna (Oncles) 30

3. Bec (Pistachios) 26

The Wim van Est Trophy (for the team with the lowest Petacchi Index):

1. Rogier (Oncles) 2

2. Lucas (Pistachios) 5

3. Matt (Oncles) 6

The C-Bung Trophy:

1. Jon (Pistachios) 47

2. Alan (Oncles) 39

3. Bec (Pistachios)

Once more thanks to all for participating and see you all at next year’s Grand Boucle.

Robin

Pantini!

lerealtour — Sun, 24 Jul 2011 15:50:41 +0000

Congrats to Pantini on a terrific repeat win! Heartbreak for Matt who could only close the gap to 2 points, still excellent job! Brilliant second stage victory on the Champs for Rogier and this time also a podium spot. Congrats, Rogier.

Tour de France 2011 Top 5:

1. Pantini (Pistachios) 682

2. Matt (Oncles) 680

3. Rogier (Oncles) 671

4. Sapna (Oncles) 668

5. Astrid (Oncles) 665

The lone Pistachio in the Top 5 takes top honors.

More later.

Robin

Scenarios for Paris

lerealtour — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 20:32:25 +0000

While my scenario for Paris would include a nice terrace, some wine, nice food and so on, but here we go for a few scenarios for the ultimate prize in Tour de France tipping.

This one is going down the wire all the way to the Champs, where last year we were enjoying Paris while the heroes on two wheels came storming into town. So, who will win? Well, based on the four sprint stage wins by Cavendish, I have produced four scenarios (taking Feillu and Galimzyanov out of the scores). Finally, I decided for myself which would be likely Top 10 sprinters tomorrow. Cavendish, of course, Farrar (over Hushovd, since he seems to be the fast man on the team), Greipel (over Gilbert, see Farrar), Petacchi, Rojas and Boasson Hagen (over Swift, since he seems to be the man in form).

Sprinters in Top 10 for scenario 5:

Cavendish

Farrar

Greipel

Rojas

Petacchi

Boasson Hagen

Wild cards:

Ciolek (Matt for 4)

Dumoulin (Astrid for 1)

Gilbert (if not Greipel) (Astrid for 7, Matt for 8, Pantini for 14)

Hushovd (if not Farrar) (Astrid for 10, Matt 12, for Pantini for 13)

Swift (if not Boasson Hagen) (Astrid for 4)

GC after stage 20:

1. Pantini (Pistachios) 645

2. Matt (Oncles) 642

3. Ronnie (Oncles) 634

4. Astrid (Oncles) 630

5. Rogier (Oncles) 629

6. Sapna (Oncles) 628

7. Bec (Pistachios) 627

8. Cameron, Jeroen (Pistachios) 623

GC after stage 21 – scenario 1 (based on stage 5 minus Feillu)

1. Pantini (Pistachios) 703

2. Matt (Oncles) 690

3. Ronnie (Oncles) 686

GC after stage 21 – scenario 2 ( based on stage 7 minus Feillu, Galimzyanov)

1. Matt (Oncles), Pantini (Pistachios) 695

3. Ronnie (Oncles) 689

GC after stage 21 – scenario 3 (based on stage 11 minus Feillu, Galimzyanov)

1. Pantini (Pistachios) 690

2. Matt (Oncles) 686

3. Cameron (Pistachios) 680

GC after stage 21 – scenario 4 (based on stage 15)

1. Matt (Oncles) 707

2. Astrid (Oncles) 696

3. Pantini (Pistachios) 690

GC after stage 21 – scenario 5 (see below)

1. Matt (Oncles), Pantini (Pistachios) 696

3. Astrid (Oncles) 686

Two scenarios have Pantini win, one time Matt wins and twice the spoils are shared. I did not take into account bonus points, which may well be crucial.

In case Swift gets to sprint instead of Boasson Hagen then, everything else being equal, all scenarios except one have Matt win. If Gilbert sprints instead of Greipel then, everything else being equal, all scenarios have Pantini win. If Ciolek scores a Top 10 then, everything else being equal, one scenario has Pantini win, three scenarios have Matt win and one would lead to a tie.

Essentially, the results hangs absolutely in the balance and can really go either way. Had Boasson Hagen not had a bike change today, he would have finished in the Top 10 and Pantini would have been the odds on favorite for victory on the Champs.

Enjoy!

Robin

Cadel Evans!

lerealtour — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 16:04:22 +0000

Winner of the 2011 Tour de France! Congrats to him and all the Aussies on a well deserved win after a near perfectly ridden Grand Boucle. Schleck the Younger put in an excellent time trial, but it was not enough. He will be able, though, to fight many more years to get that Maillot Jaune in Paris.

In our tipping competition Cameron and Milton took the stage win, while Matt edged 1 point closer to Pantini, who now has a 3 point lead going into the final stage. There is no tie breaker, so if it ends up tied for the win, the winners will have to share the trophy. In that case, Pantini would have to send the trophy to Matt at the beginning of 2012. Ronnie, sits in third place and it is all bunching up behind him in the fight for the podium.

In the pancake stakes, Sapna has simply demolished Robin this year. She did the same to her sister, Suchi. The Van Koert honors are still being fought over by Astrid and Jeroen, although Astrid would seem to have her brother covered for the final stage. Astrid also looks to have the upper hand over hubby Rogier, but they are only separated by 1 single point. Cameron handsomely beats his younger brother Michael, while Jeroen and Cameron will decide who will be the winner of the tipping fanatics (those who go for all three Grand Tours, Jeroen, Cameron, Jon, Milton, Lucas and Robin).

Stage 20 results:

1. Cameron, Milton (Pistachios) 34

3. Jon (Pistachios) 31

4. Jeroen, Michael (Pistachios), Sapna (Oncles) 29

7. Paul (Pistachios) 28

8. Bec (Pistachios), Robin (Oncles) 27

10. Alan, Rogier, Suchi (Oncles) 26

13. Lucas (Pistachios) 24

14. Ronnie (Oncles) 22

15. Astrid (Oncles) 20

16. Matt (Oncles) 19

17. Pantini (Pistachios) 18

18. Todd (Pistachios) 15

19. Chris & Mandy (Pistachios) 14

GC after stage 20:

1. Pantini (Pistachios) 645

2. Matt (Oncles) 642

3. Ronnie (Oncles) 634

4. Astrid (Oncles) 630

5. Rogier (Oncles) 629

6. Sapna (Oncles) 628

7. Bec (Pistachios) 627

8. Cameron, Jeroen (Pistachios) 623

10. Jon, Milton (Pistachios) 604

12. Lucas (Pistachios) 582

13. Todd (Pistachios) 529

14. Paul (Pistachios) 528

15. Suchi (Oncles) 527

16. Michael (Pistachios) 519

17. Robin (Oncles) 512

18. Alan (Oncles) 482
19. Chris & Mandy (Pistachios) 476

The Pistachios have a healthy 2280 versus 2245 lead over the Oncles.

Robin

So it comes down to this …

lerealtour — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 20:15:59 +0000

… three men riding their hearts out over 42.5 km of undulating terrain with a steady 10 km/h NW wind in 20°C weather with sun and some clouds for the afternoon. The last 15 km are are an almost continuous descent favoring the power riders, which would mean Evans over the Schleck brothers.

The Schlecks, Cancellara, Contador, Cunego and others did not ride the Criterium du Dauphine, but here’s the Top 10 of those who did and are still in this year’s Grand Boucle. Note that this time trial took place before the mountain stages.

1. T. Martin

2. E. Boasson Hagen

3. C. Evans

4. G. Thomas

5. C. Riblon

6. R. Taaramae

7. R. Faria da Costa

8. A. Malori

9. J. Coppel

10. J. Roy

The Tour de Suisse, where the Schlecks, Cancellara, Cunego and others rode after all the mountains. The Top 10, excluding all those who were not or are no longer in the Tour.

1. F. Cancellara

2. L. Leipheimer

3. T. Danielson

4. J. Fuglsang

5. T. de Gendt

6. C. Vande Velde

7. M. Monfort

8. L. Gerdemann

9. S. Chavanel

10. S. O’Grady

Schleck the Younger who did not ride for real finished 46^th, 2’32” behind Spartacus, while his brother ended up trying but failing in slot 60, 3’06” behind his team mate.

Finally, last year’s final individual time trial, excluding all those who will not ride tomorrow.

1. F. Cancellara

2. T. Martin

3. M. Tjallingii

4. G. Thomas

5. J. Roy

6. S. O’Grady

7. M. Monfort

8. N. Sörensen

9. D. Millar

10. J. Roelandts

The one comment to make would be that Leopard Treek have several good time trial riders (Cancellara, O’Grady and Monfort) who will start at different times and can set different intermediate times as markers.

I am not sure how a tie would be decided, but I think that is usually done on placings over the entire Tour, meaning the Maillot Vert standings. So here we go:

5. C. Evans 191

10. F. Schleck 94

15. A. Schleck 74

So it seems, Cuddles owns the tie breaker, making the required gap 57 seconds. I have no doubt that Evans will be faster than the Schleck brothers. Plenty faster than The Older, but beating The Younger by enough will be a challenge. Still, I believe he will be up to the challenge. Go Cadel!

Enjoy,

Robin

Cuddles versus The Schleck

lerealtour — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 16:44:46 +0000

What a stage! Awesome! Now the one remaining question is can Evans take 58 seconds out of Schleck the Younger in the time trial. Remember, Evans has already done this very time trial in the Criterium du Dauphine in June. He knows the roads, he knows what he can do and where. You would have to bet your money on him. Also, he looked the better rider on the ascent, not too bothered about Contador. He was right. In the end, The Accountant overestimated his powers and gained only half a minute and, more importantly, missed out on the stage. He will thank his ‘friend’ Samuel Sanchez for that one for sure. Still, another nailbiting stage for those of us in Oz.

Anyways, Lucas surged to his second stage win, courtesy of Ryder Hesjedal. Pantini saw his lead cut into half, but will look to extend his lead tomorrow again. The final battle for victory will take place on the Champs. Pantini will have to hope for Gilbert and Hushovd to get the nod over Greipel and Farrar, respectively, and would like to see Petacchi out of the sprint. Remember the last GH-less sprint (Stage 15): Matt 65 versus Pantini 45. Of course, Boasson Hagen could hand Pantini the victory, but will the Norwegian be picked by his British team or will they go for the Englishman Ben Swift?

Stage 19 results:

1. Lucas (Pistachios) 53

2. Michael, Milton (Pistachios), Suchi (Oncles) 46

5. Cameron (Pistachios) 43

6. Robin (Oncles) 42

7. Paul (Pistachios) 41

8. Bec (Pistachios), Rogier, Sapna (Oncles) 40

11. Jeroen (Pistachios) 38

12. Jon (Pistachios) 37

13. Alan (Oncles) 36

14. Matt, Ronnie (Oncles) 33

16. Pantini (Pistachios) 29

17. Astrid (Oncles) 28

18. Chris & Mandy (Pistachios) 27

19. Todd (Pistachios) 21

GC after stage 19:

1. Pantini (Pistachios) 627

2. Matt (Oncles) 623

3. Ronnie (Oncles) 612

4. Astrid (Oncles) 610

5. Rogier (Oncles) 603

6. Bec (Pistachios) 600

7. Sapna (Oncles) 599

8. Jeroen (Pistachios) 594

9. Cameron (Pistachios) 589

10. Jon (Pistachios) 573

11. Milton (Pistachios) 570

12. Lucas (Pistachios) 558

13. Todd (Pistachios) 514

14. Suchi (Oncles) 501

15. Paul (Pistachios) 500

16. Michael (Pistachios) 490

17. Robin (Oncles) 485

18. Chris & Mandy (Pistachios) 462

19. Alan (Oncles) 456

The Pistachios are leading the Oncles 2181 versus 2163.

Robin

And then there were four …

lerealtour — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 02:11:56 +0000

Yes, I still count Voeckler among the contenders, in addition to the two Schleck brothers and Evans. Tomorrow is a short stage with major climbs and descents, so a similar attack as today would have to start on the Col du Télégraph or early on the climb to the Galibier. We know that Evans and Voeckler will not attack that early, so why would the Schleck brothers attack.

First of all, they still need to get rid of Voeckler. The only way for that to happen is by attacking him with acceleration after acceleration on the final climb and/or an early attack. Secondly, they need to put time into Evans. Schleck the Younger already has time on Evans and will be able to get rid of Voeckler on the final climb to Alpe d’Huez plus put a few more seconds into Evans. Schleck the Older is too far behind to leave it to the final climb, so he will attack early. Question is, will Evans be able and, perhaps more importantly, willing to gamble on trying to follow the older brother and risk blowing himself up on the final climb? My answers are, he should and perhaps, but he should not be racing just for the podium.

Is Evans isolated, as Cameron mentioned? Maybe. Still, Vanendert would surely like to keep his polka dot jersey and would certainly lose that if Schleck the Older were to escape on the early climbs. There also must be a few riders with hopes of winning the stage to Alpe d’Huez who would also prefer not to have another runaway Schleck spoil their hopes. I am not sure whether Evans is still on any kind of terms with his former team mates, but necessity can make friends out of enemies, so he should check out the OmegaPharma-Lotto boys. I doubt whether any Dutch rider presently has the ability to win tomorrow’s stage, but Gesink and Mollema will definitely try, so maybe a chat with Rabobank would be useful for Evans as well.

Still, the legs will speak, so if Schleck the Older has anything like the legs he clearly had today, but did not use, Evans will most likely find himself losing everything on the ascent to Alpe d’Huez. I hope not, if only because I would like the uncertainty to continue into Saturday. Of course, Evans can prove my earlier statement wrong and attack himself early on in the hope of catching out Schleck the Younger, who will surely feel some effects from today’s exertions. At least early on. Actually, that is the way forward for Evans, as far as I am concerned. After all, he still has some time to play with versus Schleck the Older. Offense is the best defense. Is it a likely scenario?

Anyways, I am ready for a spectacle.

Enjoy,

Robin

A vegemite sandwich?

lerealtour — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 18:31:34 +0000

A little bit of “you read it here first”, but most of all in awe of a gutsy attack by the younger Schleck. My guess is that tomorrow we will see a reverse with Fränk going early on the Galibier while Andy counters all the attacks by … well, by who actually, I guess by Evans who is on his own now against the two brothers. This time though, I see Schleck the Younger attack on l’Alpe d’Huez in order to drop Voeckler and, maybe, Evans. After tomorrow’s stage it will be a Schleck 1-2 at the top of the GC.

Evans’ victory in Paris will depend, apart from on himself, on what allies he can find in the peloton. If I were him, I’d check out the Belgian and Dutch teams for support. I still think Cadel can be within time trial striking distance. In 1976, Belgian climber Lucien van Impe attacked, while his only remaining rival Joop “Paris is still far away” Zoetemelk waited for the others to respond until the gap was well over 3 minutes. He then went himself, but too late … . Did history repeat itself today?

A glorious stage victory for Lucas. Congrats! Pantini extended his lead in the GC and is inching closer to a repeat.

Stage 18 results:

1. Lucas (Pistachios) 44

2. Suchi (Oncles) 42

3. Alan (Oncles) 36

4. Michael (Pistachios) 32

5. Bec (Pistachios), Robin (Oncles) 30

7. Milton (Pistachios) 28

8. Sapna (Oncles) 27

9. Chris & Mandy (Pistachios) 25

10. Rogier (Oncles) 23

11. Cameron, Jon, Paul (Pistachios), Ronnie (Oncles) 19

15. Pantini (Pistachios) 18

16. Matt (Oncles) 15

17. Todd (Pistachios) 14

18. Astrid (Oncles) 13

19. Jeroen (Pistachios) 11

GC after stage 18:

1. Pantini (Pistachios) 598

2. Matt (Oncles) 590

3. Astrid (Oncles) 582

4. Ronnie (Oncles) 579

5. Rogier (Oncles) 563

6. Bec (Pistachios) 560

7. Sapna (Oncles) 559

8. Jeroen (Pistachios) 556

9. Cameron (Pistachios) 546

10. Jon (Pistachios) 536

11. Milton (Pistachios) 524

12. Lucas (Pistachios) 505

13. Todd (Pistachios) 493

14. Paul (Pistachios) 459

15. Suchi (Oncles) 455

16. Michael (Pistachios) 444

17. Robin (Oncles) 443

18. Chris & Mandy (Pistachios) 435

19. Alan (Oncles) 420

The Pistachios have seen their lead shrink to 1 single point.

Robin

The Primate on the Hill (Homo Pistachius Gargantuas)

lerealtour — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 09:31:18 +0000

The Pistachios are very anxious about the chances of Cadel tonight.

This may come as some surprise to many of the Oncles who would be saying: “Don’t worry, we know what you’re going through, even Joop Zoetmelk won the Tour in the end!”.

However, though attention has been drawn this Tour, to the parallels (or not) between cycling and sports involving bat and ball, it is unlikely that the Oncles would have considered any commonality with another ball and stick pursuit – that of the game of golf.

But for the Pistachios, the similarities are eerily familiar… having been haunted for decades by another Pistachio trying to wave the Aussie flag and achieve sporting immortality on the world stage, the Great White Shark: Greg Norman.

Time after time he would lead into the closing holes of a major tournament; and year after year we would all rise at some ungodly hour to watch his inevitable triumph… only to witness a carefully camouflaged monkey emerge on his back at the 11^th green and place a banana skin underneath his putter. That same species that we have witnessed deflating Cadel Evans’ tyres on previous alpine stages of the Tour.

Don’t take my word for it though, here is what the famous British Naturalist David Attenborough has to say on the matter:

“One of the most fascinating and unique primates on this planet is the migratory species Homo-Pistachius-Gargantuas. Native to the Pistachio Isle Australia, this rare and fearsome creature has claimed many an unsuspecting sporting champion with its devious predatory instincts.”

“Normally found in the wooded areas, or exposed sandy outcrops, at the side of long manicured naturally contoured lawns, or hidden in rocky crags at the side of alpine roads, the carnivorous Gargantuas possesses an extraordinary survival strategy and the ability to pursue its victims to all corners of the Earth.”

“A fussy eater, preying only upon the antipodean male Homo Erectus, Gargantuas is rarely seen stalking its prey, preferring to remain hidden; emitting a sound resembling applause until the testosterone levels of its unsuspecting victim reach incredible levels. Having lulled its victim into a false sense of security, the nearly invisible primate then leaps onto its victims back, sucking it dry all of testosterone (causing it to shrivel) and then unleashing a devastating nerve attack rendering the victim completely incapable of further physical performance.”

“Its appetite not yet satisfied, Gargantuas then descends upon the stunned fans of its original victim subduing all of them with a secondary feeding attack known as Erectus Crumbilis.”

“And in an even more horrifying twist, the Gargantuas doesn’t then move on to another victim. Instead it has demonstrated a sinister ability to farm its victims – going into hibernation… until years later, when the casualty’s
testosterone levels finally return, the Gargantuas readies itself for another terrifying strike.”

[Attenborough Crouches Down...]

“And here we are on the slopes of the Col du Galibier. Over to the side here at 2000m in altitude is (we suspect) a preferred feeding location for the Homo Pistachius Gargantuas. We will never actually see this creature until it
is too late and there is no known defence against it – not even a bag of peanuts. The victim’s only hope is that Gargantuas has not yet arisen from its hibernation.”

“Several reports have been documented in recent decades and in each case, scientists have attempted to classify the sub-species:

Homo-Pistachius-Gargantuas-Mizeus

Homo-Pistachius-Gargantuas-Twayus

Homo-Pistachius-Gargantuas-Faldus

Homo-Pistachius-Gargantuas-Espagnolus

With sightings of this creature so rare, scientists have only now realised that all these apparent substrains of this primate, are in fact one and the same creature….”

“Homo – Pistachius – Gargantuas – Farkus”