While my scenario for Paris would include a nice terrace, some wine, nice food and so on, but here we go for a few scenarios for the ultimate prize in Tour de France tipping.
This one is going down the wire all the way to the Champs, where last year we were enjoying Paris while the heroes on two wheels came storming into town. So, who will win? Well, based on the four sprint stage wins by Cavendish, I have produced four scenarios (taking Feillu and Galimzyanov out of the scores). Finally, I decided for myself which would be likely Top 10 sprinters tomorrow. Cavendish, of course, Farrar (over Hushovd, since he seems to be the fast man on the team), Greipel (over Gilbert, see Farrar), Petacchi, Rojas and Boasson Hagen (over Swift, since he seems to be the man in form).
Sprinters in Top 10 for scenario 5:
Cavendish
Farrar
Greipel
Rojas
Petacchi
Boasson Hagen
Wild cards:
Ciolek (Matt for 4)
Dumoulin (Astrid for 1)
Gilbert (if not Greipel) (Astrid for 7, Matt for 8, Pantini for 14)
Hushovd (if not Farrar) (Astrid for 10, Matt 12, for Pantini for 13)
Swift (if not Boasson Hagen) (Astrid for 4)
GC after stage 20:
1. Pantini (Pistachios) 645
2. Matt (Oncles) 642
3. Ronnie (Oncles) 634
4. Astrid (Oncles) 630
5. Rogier (Oncles) 629
6. Sapna (Oncles) 628
7. Bec (Pistachios) 627
8. Cameron, Jeroen (Pistachios) 623
GC after stage 21 – scenario 1 (based on stage 5 minus Feillu)
1. Pantini (Pistachios) 703
2. Matt (Oncles) 690
3. Ronnie (Oncles) 686
GC after stage 21 – scenario 2 ( based on stage 7 minus Feillu, Galimzyanov)
1. Matt (Oncles), Pantini (Pistachios) 695
3. Ronnie (Oncles) 689
GC after stage 21 – scenario 3 (based on stage 11 minus Feillu, Galimzyanov)
1. Pantini (Pistachios) 690
2. Matt (Oncles) 686
3. Cameron (Pistachios) 680
GC after stage 21 – scenario 4 (based on stage 15)
1. Matt (Oncles) 707
2. Astrid (Oncles) 696
3. Pantini (Pistachios) 690
GC after stage 21 – scenario 5 (see below)
1. Matt (Oncles), Pantini (Pistachios) 696
3. Astrid (Oncles) 686
Two scenarios have Pantini win, one time Matt wins and twice the spoils are shared. I did not take into account bonus points, which may well be crucial.
In case Swift gets to sprint instead of Boasson Hagen then, everything else being equal, all scenarios except one have Matt win. If Gilbert sprints instead of Greipel then, everything else being equal, all scenarios have Pantini win. If Ciolek scores a Top 10 then, everything else being equal, one scenario has Pantini win, three scenarios have Matt win and one would lead to a tie.
Essentially, the results hangs absolutely in the balance and can really go either way. Had Boasson Hagen not had a bike change today, he would have finished in the Top 10 and Pantini would have been the odds on favorite for victory on the Champs.
Enjoy!
Robin
