… three men riding their hearts out over 42.5 km of undulating terrain with a steady 10 km/h NW wind in 20°C weather with sun and some clouds for the afternoon. The last 15 km are are an almost continuous descent favoring the power riders, which would mean Evans over the Schleck brothers.
The Schlecks, Cancellara, Contador, Cunego and others did not ride the Criterium du Dauphine, but here’s the Top 10 of those who did and are still in this year’s Grand Boucle. Note that this time trial took place before the mountain stages.
1. T. Martin
2. E. Boasson Hagen
3. C. Evans
4. G. Thomas
5. C. Riblon
6. R. Taaramae
7. R. Faria da Costa
8. A. Malori
9. J. Coppel
10. J. Roy
The Tour de Suisse, where the Schlecks, Cancellara, Cunego and others rode after all the mountains. The Top 10, excluding all those who were not or are no longer in the Tour.
1. F. Cancellara
2. L. Leipheimer
3. T. Danielson
4. J. Fuglsang
5. T. de Gendt
6. C. Vande Velde
7. M. Monfort
8. L. Gerdemann
9. S. Chavanel
10. S. O’Grady
Schleck the Younger who did not ride for real finished 46th, 2’32” behind Spartacus, while his brother ended up trying but failing in slot 60, 3’06” behind his team mate.
Finally, last year’s final individual time trial, excluding all those who will not ride tomorrow.
1. F. Cancellara
2. T. Martin
3. M. Tjallingii
4. G. Thomas
5. J. Roy
6. S. O’Grady
7. M. Monfort
8. N. Sörensen
9. D. Millar
10. J. Roelandts
The one comment to make would be that Leopard Treek have several good time trial riders (Cancellara, O’Grady and Monfort) who will start at different times and can set different intermediate times as markers.
I am not sure how a tie would be decided, but I think that is usually done on placings over the entire Tour, meaning the Maillot Vert standings. So here we go:
5. C. Evans 191
10. F. Schleck 94
15. A. Schleck 74
So it seems, Cuddles owns the tie breaker, making the required gap 57 seconds. I have no doubt that Evans will be faster than the Schleck brothers. Plenty faster than The Older, but beating The Younger by enough will be a challenge. Still, I believe he will be up to the challenge. Go Cadel!
Enjoy,
Robin
Robin, the generous support of the Oncles for our man this year has been greatly appreciated.
We believe he was the strongest man at the top of Alpe d’Huez last night and were left inescapably with the conviction that he therefore CAN do it tonight!
GO CADEL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
By: Fiddygig on July 23, 2011
at 2:08 am
I will be watching the stage with Akash being around the house. Our women will be partying (Jaya) and exercising (Sapna), while we watch other people exercise and, afterward, party.
By: Robin on July 23, 2011
at 3:44 am
Have my Dad’s 70th tonight but will be making sure I am close to a TV set to watch proceedings tonight. I am oh so fearful of the cocktail that Andy is being prepared for tonight’s TT. I’ve seen hopeless ITT’ers do miraculous things on this PennyUltimate day and am completely convinced that it isn’t the Canary Yellow that gives them that extra special boost.
Nevertheless, I will be cheering Cadence all the way to the finish line and if he can get within 30 seconds by the halfway mark, will be screaming the house down.
Prediction: Cadence by 4 seconds.
Pantothenate- a vitamin of the B complex, found in rice, bran, and many other foods, and essential for the oxidation of fats and carbohydrates.
By: pantini on July 23, 2011
at 5:20 am
I have been doing some arithmetic to analyse Cadel’s chances of taking the necessary 57 second time gain on Andy:
Cadelicious did the same TT in the Dauphine in 56min48sec, so presuming a little more fatigue at the end of Le Tour offset by the chance at making history I will presume a time of 57min00sec (if in fact it takes him longer then it is actually better as far as having to gain a smaller relative percentage of time compared to total elapsed time).
On the basis of a 57min00sec time he will complete the 42.5 km course at an average speed of 44.74km/h.
If Andy is to lose the Tour he would have to complete the course in 57min58sec or longer, an average of 43.99km/h.
In other words Cadelastic will have to ride the entire course at an average speed of 0.75km/h, or 1.7%, faster than Andy.
Or simplest of all, given that Cadel has to gain 57 seconds and his ride will take close to 57 minutes, he needs a one second gain per minute elapsed time.
So with the first time check at 15km, at his average speed of 44.74km/h, Cadel should take 20min7sec to get there, and so should have cut the deficit by 20 seconds. – that is, still behind by 37 seconds.
The second time check is at 27.5km, and at 44.74km/h Cadel should get there in 36min53sec, and so should have cut the deficit by almost 37 seconds – that is, still behind by 20 seconds.
As Robin has pointed out the final 15 km after the second time check probably suits Cadel the best of all, so give or take a few seconds if Cadel is within 25-30 seconds at the second time check then we are all in for a nail-biter!!!
Looking forward to the Pistachios’ gathering at Todd and Bec’s – Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oi! Oi! Oi!
By: Lucas on July 23, 2011
at 5:39 am
Think that most of the favourites will miss the Top 10 just like last year. The weather forecast looks like a NE wind strengthening in the afternoon giving the morning riders a good advantage.
Tony and Fabian for the one two.
PS FiddyGargantuas would be better to give a weather report than me.
Pants off
By: pantini on July 23, 2011
at 6:22 am
Usually the stage winner forecast is far more important than the stage weather forecast in my book and I can’t argue with your 1-2 Pants. Before the Tour I’d given it to Martin having completed the course in the Dauphine, but courtesy of his crash on Stage 18 and his half-arsed effort at GC… Fabio doing sweet F.A. all Tour except cultivate his porno star facial hair/greasy mop combo… I’d definitely say it would be a night for Cantraception.
However in this case, the Stage winner is a mildly amusing irrelevance. I’ve always admired your lick the finger and stick it out the window forecasting technique Pantemometer, and those listeners couldn’t have given a rats clacker anyway… If you say strengthening NE wind then thats what it’ll be and therefore the D-andy-lion will be well and truly blown away.
Wish your Dad a Happy Birthday from me.
If Cadel wins it’ll be:
Giddyjig
By: Fiddygig on July 23, 2011
at 10:29 am
Evans has ridden an almost perfect Tour this year, but for one small mistake on Stage 18. Either he should have gone along with Schleck the Younger, which probably did not make any sense at the time or he should have assumed it would be up to him to chase a few K sooner. Given that he rode magnificently to the top of the Galibier, he would probably have saved a few more seconds. Hopefully that minor mistake will not come back to haunt him today. Go Cadel!
By: Robin on July 23, 2011
at 12:11 pm
Just heard from (a slightly disappointed with his own effort) Dutch time trialing specialist Lieuwe Westra, who said after his time trial that, based on the course and the past three weeks of racing, Evans will post the fastest time and will take the Maillot Jaune to Paris. See, The Orange Force is with Cadel.
By: Robin on July 23, 2011
at 12:27 pm