Yes, I still count Voeckler among the contenders, in addition to the two Schleck brothers and Evans. Tomorrow is a short stage with major climbs and descents, so a similar attack as today would have to start on the Col du Télégraph or early on the climb to the Galibier. We know that Evans and Voeckler will not attack that early, so why would the Schleck brothers attack.
First of all, they still need to get rid of Voeckler. The only way for that to happen is by attacking him with acceleration after acceleration on the final climb and/or an early attack. Secondly, they need to put time into Evans. Schleck the Younger already has time on Evans and will be able to get rid of Voeckler on the final climb to Alpe d’Huez plus put a few more seconds into Evans. Schleck the Older is too far behind to leave it to the final climb, so he will attack early. Question is, will Evans be able and, perhaps more importantly, willing to gamble on trying to follow the older brother and risk blowing himself up on the final climb? My answers are, he should and perhaps, but he should not be racing just for the podium.
Is Evans isolated, as Cameron mentioned? Maybe. Still, Vanendert would surely like to keep his polka dot jersey and would certainly lose that if Schleck the Older were to escape on the early climbs. There also must be a few riders with hopes of winning the stage to Alpe d’Huez who would also prefer not to have another runaway Schleck spoil their hopes. I am not sure whether Evans is still on any kind of terms with his former team mates, but necessity can make friends out of enemies, so he should check out the OmegaPharma-Lotto boys. I doubt whether any Dutch rider presently has the ability to win tomorrow’s stage, but Gesink and Mollema will definitely try, so maybe a chat with Rabobank would be useful for Evans as well.
Still, the legs will speak, so if Schleck the Older has anything like the legs he clearly had today, but did not use, Evans will most likely find himself losing everything on the ascent to Alpe d’Huez. I hope not, if only because I would like the uncertainty to continue into Saturday. Of course, Evans can prove my earlier statement wrong and attack himself early on in the hope of catching out Schleck the Younger, who will surely feel some effects from today’s exertions. At least early on. Actually, that is the way forward for Evans, as far as I am concerned. After all, he still has some time to play with versus Schleck the Older. Offense is the best defense. Is it a likely scenario?
Anyways, I am ready for a spectacle.
Enjoy,
Robin
Agree with most of the analysis, except the support bit. Why not have a chat to the Schleck’s former team manager, Bjarne Riis?
It’s not in Cadel’s nature to organise these sort of things but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bjarne sends a few of his men to the front today, even without Cadel asking.
By: Jeroen on July 22, 2011
at 2:56 am
Excellent point Jeroen – Are Bjarne and Contador the vindictive b_rstards that you make them out to be? I don’t know but I hope so, and Evans ought to have earned some resepct from the rest of the field for attempting to keep them in the race.
I quite like your go early theory Robin. Evans is an excellent descender and the road to Bourg d’Oisans is almost all down. The problem as I see it is that he won’t have a couple of team-mates up the road to pull for him.
By: Fiddygig on July 22, 2011
at 3:26 am
Well, Cameron, that’s where the chatting with other teams comes in. I’d be rather surprised if Rabobank would have nobody up the road tomorrow. After his attempt on Wednesday, Mollema talked about having a go at the Alpe. He took it easy today (yesterday) and finished outside the time limit, but got away with it as he was one of eighty-eight. The same applies to Luis-Leon Sanchez and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Barredo. The Shack might be a good source of some support. In short, there will be a breakaway without any GC contenders very early on. Evans should try to reach them. Schleck the Older will follow, but in a role reversal (and because of his efforts) his brother will not. Evans should find plenty support in the breakaway if he plays it right.
As for Riis, I do not like the man, but I do think he really respects the Schleck brothers as riders.
On verra, as the French would say.
Really looking forward to this stage. This time, I have done all my deadline work this (Thursday) evening. So after bringing Jaya to her summer camp, I will settle myself in front of the television with a good cup of coffee. And enjoy I will.
Go Bauke, Robert and all you other Cloggies!
By: Robin on July 22, 2011
at 3:43 am
Enjoy your well-earned afternoon off then Robin with a cup of Gorilla Ethiopian Harrar.
This has been the most thrilling edition of Le Tour that I have ever seen.
By: Fiddygig on July 22, 2011
at 3:51 am
My money’s still on Evans NOT going early at all – thereby getting done on Alpe d’Huez by one of the Schleck’s. Even if he does go early on Alpe d’Huez I think he’ll get done by one of them. So I think Evans will try and play safe by not going early and think about doing a superhuman time trial.
There’s probably no point for him going early on the Telegragh and trying to shake off Andy downhill because the two brothers can just work with each other tocatch up until one of them makes a break on the final climb.
If I was Evans I would stay with Frank and just hope that Andy doesn’t have the legs to make too much of an impact on Alpe d’Huez – surely Andy wouldn’t go early again before the final climb!!!!
If Evans gets any help from others, that would be a bonus but I doubt he’ll be counting on it by the time they get to Alpe d’Huez.
If Frank goes early Evans will have to stay with him and gamble that Andy hasn’t got the legs to get a break a second day.
Milton
By: Milton Speer on July 22, 2011
at 6:32 am
Love the theories lads, here’s mine…
Frank goes early, Cadel follows and drops him on the descent of the Galibier. He then goes like stink to catch the early break and starts shopping around his first born (and maybe second and third as well) for some help on le Alpe…
Andy left sobbing on the Telegraph because his legs hurt…
Berty and Sammy are missing from the peleton at the start, both seen later drinking sangria halfway down the Galibier, throwing stones at passing LeOpard riders…
Tommy breaks clear halfway up the Alpe and the tour is his… Until he’s mugged by 14 middle aged French housewives in a fever pitch of lust…
Go Cadel! Bloody Schlecks…
By: Drew on July 22, 2011
at 7:51 am
hmmmm, I reckon it’ll be all together at the bottom the Alpe, Frank will attack to force Cadel to follow to try and tire him out for the TT, BUT, Andy will still be paying for his efforts on the Galibier and won’t be able to hold Cadel’s wheel. Frank will then just follow before gaining another 10 seconds at the top, but the damage will already be done. Frank will be the one to display his brothers weakness that results in his loss of the tour. Oh the tragedy.
You heard it here first….
By: lerealtour on July 22, 2011
at 7:12 am
Like the theory!… and if Cadel wins by 2 seconds then Andy can thank Frank for that last minute sprint on the Galibier that caused Evans to accelerate towards the line!
As Robin points out there is another ray of hope too: that Andy still has to worry about taking time on Voeckler and can’t just focus on Cadel.
Us Pistachios are not really a parochial bunch are we?
By: Fiddygig on July 22, 2011
at 11:59 am
A 2 seconds difference before the final stage to Paris. An intriguing prospect. In that case, will it still be a ceremonial stage? What if it is 1 second? No racing after all they have gone through to get that victory?
By: Robin on July 22, 2011
at 12:14 pm
Cuddles should keep his cool, while Contador is heloing Schleck the Younger win the Grand Boucle. Silly move by Voeckler who will pay … I think.
By: Robin on July 22, 2011
at 1:23 pm
After the mechanical he has to gamble on the peloton being the better option. 150km away in 2 days for the Younger is an awful lot!…but nothing would surprise right now.
This could yet play into his hands. Could this be the Derailleur of God mechanical?
By: Fiddygig on July 22, 2011
at 1:33 pm
A little chat and there we go … Contador the win on the Alpe and Schleck the Younger the Tour. OK, let’s ride.
By: Robin on July 22, 2011
at 1:53 pm
Brilliant effort by Cuddles. Contador looked a bit labored near the top of the Galibier. Schleck the Younger cannot be all fresh either. One thing achieved so far. Voeckler destroyed. His ascent to the Alpe will be a tough one. Who will still have something left in the tank on the 21 ‘virages’ … ?
By: Robin on July 22, 2011
at 2:45 pm
10s down on the descent now. Game on!
By: Fiddygig on July 22, 2011
at 2:54 pm
Hi Fives in the Sonic loungeroom from Drew, Todd, Bec and Cam…
By: Fiddygig on July 22, 2011
at 2:56 pm
From Todd: “Bike riding truly shits on baseball!”
By: Fiddygig on July 22, 2011
at 2:58 pm
High fives all round at chateau Henderson! Can anyone break him? And make him stay broken? Andy’s gotta be spewing now…
By: Drew on July 22, 2011
at 3:00 pm
Epic.
By: Robin on July 22, 2011
at 3:05 pm
Get to the front Ten Dam and start pedalling!
By: Fiddygig on July 22, 2011
at 3:12 pm
The Lid has just been blown to the shizenhausen!
By: Fiddygig on July 22, 2011
at 4:24 pm